Market Update

Mortgage rates moved slightly lower this week, but the drop was small. The bond market has been trading tight, with the 10-year Treasury holding just above 4%, which keeps most 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the mid-6% range nationwide.

Analysts say bigger movement won’t happen until we see stronger signs of cooling inflation or clearer direction from the Federal Reserve. Until then, rates are expected to hover in a narrow range, giving buyers short windows to lock in better pricing when the market dips.

If you’re planning a purchase or refinance in the next few months, these small pullbacks can still make a meaningful difference — especially here in Las Vegas where affordability and timing are everything.

Bottom Line:
Rates dipped, just not dramatically. Stay ready, stay pre-approved, and lock strategically.

Treasury yields traded in a narrow range on Thursday as investors processed fresh inflation and employment data. The 10-year Treasury remained just above 4.1%, keeping national 30-year fixed mortgage averages steady in the mid-6% range. When the bond market holds flat like this, mortgage rates typically stay stable in the short term — giving buyers a small window to lock before the next round of economic reports hits.

Treasury yields rose broadly on Wednesday following the release of U.S. strong data, while the U.S.′ top court signaled skepticism around the legality of the Trump administration’s tariffs. The 10-year Treasury yield traded more than 6 basis points higher at 4.153%. The 2-year note yield climbed more than 4 basis points to 3.625%. The 30-year bond yield also advanced more than 6 basis points to 4.733%. One basis point equals 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The Federal Reserve has recently cut interest rates twice this year, aiming to stimulate the labor market and boost economic activity. The most recent cut, announced on October 29, 2025, brought the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.75% to 4%. However, Chair Jerome Powell has indicated uncertainty about future cuts, suggesting that a further reduction at the next meeting in December is not a foregone conclusion. This uncertainty has led to a mixed reaction from the broader market, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping slightly after Powell’s comments. The Fed’s decision to cut rates is part of a broader strategy to lower borrowing costs, which can have immediate effects on auto loans, credit cards, and mortgage rates. However, the Fed also faces challenges such as persistent inflation and the impact of a government shutdown on economic activity.

The Federal Reserve is set to make its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, even as a near-total blackout of federal economic data continues amid the government shutdown. The Labor Department, however, on Friday released one key report ahead of its meeting: the Consumer Price Index. That report showed that the inflation rate rose at a pace of 3% last month, cooler than expected, as the impact of President Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs have so far been more muted than economists have forecast.

The Federal Reserve has recently cut its benchmark interest rate, which has significant implications for consumer loans and savings rates. The cut is part of a broader strategy to address economic challenges and support job growth. The Fed has indicated that it may continue to cut rates in the coming months, potentially leading to further reductions in borrowing costs for consumers.

While a majority of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking panel voted last month to lower interest rates, officials disputed how many additional cuts could come this year, with “around half” favoring two more easements by December, according to minutes “Almost all” of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee expected a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates in September, while the “vast majority” projected two cuts by the end of the year, and “around half” expected three. A “dot plot” marking individual expectations from Fed officials indicated a 10-9 split, with the majority expecting two more quarter-point rate cuts by its last meeting in December, potentially lowering rates to between 3.5% and 3.75%.

The current 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage refinance average rate stands at 6.43%, compared to 6.5% last week. The annual percentage rate (APR) on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 6.46%, lower than last week’s 6.53%. The APR is the all-in cost of a home loan—the interest rate including any fees or extra costs. At the current interest rate, borrowers with a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage of $100,000 will pay $627 per month for principal and interest, according to the Forbes Advisor mortgage calculator. That doesn’t include taxes and fees. Over the life of the loan, the borrower will pay total interest costs of about $126,504.

Federal Reserve officials are pushing back on the idea that another rate cut is inevitable next month. Markets aren’t buying it, based on trading of federal-funds futures. The widening gap between policymakers and investors could indicate a possible market reckoning come October.

Though incremental, the policy turn is significant. Fed officials foresee two additional cuts in 2025 and one more in 2026, a trajectory that could lower rates by a full percentage point and lighten the load for millions of borrowers. For now, the quarter-point reduction will trickle through unevenly: some borrowers will see relief almost immediately, while others may notice little change, depending on their rates and the products they hold, according to experts.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday as officials signaled that two more cuts could follow this year in light of rising risks confronting the labor market.

The decision to lower borrowing costs for the first time since December shifts interest rates to a range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The decision was not unanimously supported, the second straight meeting that featured at least one dissent from a member of the Board of Governors.

The Federal Reserve is now nearly certain to cut its benchmark interest rate in September by at least 25 basis points and possibly 50. A report on the jobs market released Friday showed hiring is slower than expected, giving the Fed reason to boost the job market with lower interest rates. Fed officials have been torn between keeping rates high to fight inflation and lowering them to prevent unemployment from rising. For now, the Fed may focus more on the threat to the job market rather than the possibility that tariffs will stoke inflation.

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said he now supports a series of interest-rate cuts beginning in September, with the pace of subsequent moves driven by the incoming data. So look for the rates to drop starting in September.

Wall Street took Wednesday’s policy pivot as a sign of more aggressive cuts to come. Traders now see a more than 50% chance that the Fed will lower its federal funds rate target range by another 75 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% by the end of the year.

“Most” Fed staff believe the central bank will lower interest rates in 2025, according to minutes released Wednesday afternoon from the June 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting panel which opted to hold interest rates at the 4.25% to 4.5% range they’ve sat since December.

The Clark County real estate market in Nevada has 13,868 homes for sale as of April 2025, a 14.0% increase compared to March 2025. The market is likely impacted by interest rate fluctuations, which can affect affordability and purchasing power for homebuyers.